Page 31 - IRMSA Risk Report 2021

2.5 IRMSA’S RISK-RESILIENT SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

Having considered the latest flags of our chosen scenario builders, we have decided to retain the ten key drivers of IRMSA’s three
scenarios as set out in the 2020 IRMSA Risk Report. We updated these flags, but still consider them key driving forces to shape
potential future scenarios we face as a country. Whereas last year we demonstrated the need to build a risk-resilient country, this
year we believe our message is much more urgent:

IF WE DO NOT ACTIVELY, PURPOSELY AND CONSTRUCTIVELY START DOING THE ACTUAL
THINGS THAT WILL SHAPE OUR FUTURE, WE HAVE VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF HAVING A
FUTURE TO INFLUENCE.

Again, the scenario builders included in this report (Indlulamithi, Frans Cronje and Clem Sunter) each built their scenario from
a specific perspective: social cohesion, socio-economic success as a country, and global influences, respectively. The updated
scenarios from IRMSA’s perspective of owning our future are described below, together with the flags we believe require action to
avoid ending up in the worst-case scenario.

PERPETUAL HANGOVER

Trends of short-termism and social bankruptcy accelerate, worsened by the possibility of a debt trap and eventually a
failed state. South Africa loses the battle to align across social differences, populism, racial polarisation, and short-sighted
economic policies combined with socio-economic, policy and financial realities in an ever downward spiral. As a country, we
finally lose our ability to work towards a common societal purpose. Our perpetual hangover as a country slips into complete
dysfunctionality.

FAKE IT UNTIL WE MAKE IT, OR NOT?

South Africa is unable to eliminate the drivers that will ultimately result in a “Perpetual Hangover” scenario, and politicians,
business leaders, and individuals are not brave enough to acknowledge that our lofty goals are only castles in the sky. Relying
on assets built up in the past, we do not seem to grasp that the economic and societal foundations which carried us to here
have been eroded to such an extent that they cannot carry our inaction any longer. The incontrovertible fact remains that
the future does not realise based on what we believe to be true, but on what is actually true. Unless we are brave enough to
make the tough calls needed to turn our country around, we are destined to become part of the ground-rush statistics. This
scenario is impossible to sustain much longer – South Africa does not have much time in which to pull the ripcord to ensure
we own our future. Very soon the perpetual hangover will no longer be a scenario but a reality, slipping into dysfunctional
alcoholism (as a proxy for a dysfunctional country or failed state).

OWNING OUR FUTURE

Individuals, families, organisations and government (local, provincial and national) start working together in a concerted
approach to actively pursue our collective survival and well-being as a country. We realise that the divisive elements in our
society are just that, and we actively remove the power from such elements by focusing on building the future that we need
to survive. We learn to deal with our disagreements without threatening our continued existence. We realise that none of us
can survive in isolation, based on our tolerance of each other and the optimisation of our limited resources to a more equal
distribution of benefits across society. For this reason, we have changed the title of this scenario from the previous “Spring
of Hope” to “Owning our Future” to demonstrate the active taking of accountability for sustained existence across society.

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