Page 35 - IRMSA Risk Report 2021

PERPETUAL FAKE IT UNTIL WE OWNING OUR
FLAGS
HANGOVER MAKE IT, OR NOT? FUTURE
The economy, having persisted There is a realisation that despite The global economy recovers
at extremely low growth rates for political party promises, real jobs and experiences a sustained,
a long time, eventually stagnates are not being created and more long-term recovery. South Africa
before recession hits. The State critical skills leave the country. is well on its way to growth
continuous to pursue reckless Bi-lateral agreements stave off rates of 5%. Local business
out-of-date socialist and market- some of the negative impacts and consumer confidence
unfriendly policies that lead to a of foreign partners’ economic increases. Capital flight is abated
series of ratings downgrades and policy changes, e.g., with China. and Foreign Direct Investment
a major flight of capital. Inflation, Self-sufficiency increases, firstly increases. Skilled South Africans
8 government debt and interest as a survival mechanism, then return and contribute to
rates soar, causing widespread as part of the impetus for the recovery process. South
ECONOMY
dejection among the public, who small-scale entrepreneurship. Africans, in large numbers, buy
remain cowed and resigned to Communities work together to into the “chosen glory” narrative
their fate. look after their own schooling, to rebuild the country.
health care, security, and other
needs. This is done despite the
State and across lines of race,
class, and ethnicity. SA lacks
sustainable solutions to improve
its investment ratings.
Things go unexpectedly pear- The world’s markets crash as in The world remains deeply divided
shaped and lurch out of control. 2008. This one could be deeper but no seriously dramatic events
Anti-establishment feeling and longer than the last one, occur. Nevertheless, global
increases and is aided and since there are now fewer options economic growth rates remain
abetted by social media, with available to governments to re- subdued compared to the last
highly unpredictable outcomes. stimulate the global economy. century, which was boosted
9 Wars break out in the Middle Changes in global economic by free trade, free movement
East and Korea, which kill millions policies negatively impact SA, of people, and the sharing of
GLOBAL of people. Although it is unlikely e.g., China moves to a consumer technology – all of which have
TRENDS that America will use nuclear economy that negatively impacts been stopped in their tracks for
weapons (due to the fear of a coal and mineral exports. A rise the foreseeable future.
nuclear response from Russia), in “nationalism” runs counter
this is totally unpredictable. to African Unity initiatives. This
requires considerable effort to
treat.

Leaders deny any link between The bailouts of state-owned International cooperation to
climate change and human enterprises and emerging address climate change reaches
activity. There is no coordinated market “survivalism” dictate a scale never seen before. A huge
approach to the humanitarian SA’s reaction to climate change. wave of new products associated
impact of climate change, which Non-government organisations’ with clean energy is sparked and
includes extreme weather and the younger generations’ on par with microelectronics
events. South Africans are so demands for more sustainable and the internet. South African
10
caught up in political and social solutions to carbon emissions renewable energy and clean
CLIMATE squabbles that any effort to fall on deaf ears. product economies contribute
address climate change is seen significantly to national and
as an unaffordable luxury. The regional energy security.
goal of greater prosperity for all
eclipses the need to preserve
the environment.

TABLE 3: IRMSA SCENARIOS – 3 SCENARIOS AND 10 FLAGS.

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