Page 27 - IRMSA Risk Report 2021

To determine which scenario is more likely to play out, Cronje urges us to watch the following flags:

FALL OF SOUTH JUMP TO THE STEP TO THE RISE OF SOUTH
AFRICA LEFT RIGHT AFRICA

The ANC slowly presses
Government tries, but fails, to
Policy, economic and social introduce liberalising policy damaging policy ahead, Firm action to deregulate
failures are employed as reforms; policy paralysis creates massive uncertainty aspects of labour market
evidence of entrenched and high levels of policy without implementation as policy
racism dire consequences become
uncertainty prevail
clear
Attempts to adjust The ANC counters these
empowerment policy Repeal of various aspects
Race-based policy is ever provisions are read as assaults with ineffective of race-based policy and
more strictly enforced appeals to racial unity and
an effort to undermine revolutionary dogma legislation
transformation

ANC government’s efforts
Politicians deflect criticism at reform meet with Internal conflict within the Sale of several state-owned
with appeals to racial considerable popular ANC increases firms
nationalist unity
resistance and anger
The current administration Successful prosecution of
Critical and opposition voices unites, belatedly, around a The prominence of conserva- a series of senior ANC and
are intimidated and silenced tive black voices is marked
reformist agenda government leaders

The erosion of property
The ANC tries to back out rights continues, the Abandonment of efforts to
Property rights are steadily of its expropriation, NHI, Constitution is amended change the Constitution to
eroded BEE and prescribed assets and the Expropriation Bill is allow expropriation without
policies passed; pension funds are compensation
used to plug spending gaps

Media and civil society turn
Academia, media and civil Prominent media, activists against the racial nationalist Enthusiastic public, civil
society inculcate mood of and civil society voices reject incitement and dated society, and media support
nationalist hysteria and the reformist agenda as right- dogma of the ANC and its for all of the above
victimhood wing and conservative
government

Schools perform poorly
The proportion of learners and produce young people Quick increase of proportion
Education outcomes weaken passing math in matric without means to reach of learners passing maths in
stagnates aspirations and many will matric
emigrate

ANC alliance support Polls show that support for
continues to slip; new the ANC is weakening rapidly; Polls and by-election results
ANC and EFF drift closer left-wing voices and new centre-right political suggest that support for the
together
commentators gain actors and activists’ voices ANC is stable
prominence become prominent

Any significant/prolonged A short-lived global market
global contraction Socio-economic Most economic indicators are pullback stops short of
exacerbates the extent circumstances continue to down triggering a long-term global
of domestic political and deteriorate slump/depression
economic contraction

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