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2.3 FRANS CRONJE – THE RISE AND FALL OF SOUTH AFRICA

Leading scenario planner Frans Cronje determines the extent of South Africa’s exposure to global political and economic risk in
terms of the number of independent factors currently playing out that could tip the country into trouble. In his view, there are
about ten such factors and the country’s prospects for economic recovery are therefore extremely vulnerable to events outside of
its control. Cronje opines that South Africa’s future will be determined by the clash of the following forces that currently grip the
country:

• A battle of ideas around whether South Africa will be governed as a free, open, prosperous, and democratic society- or whether
it will fall into socialist autocracy.

• A psychological battle over whether South Africans will define themselves as individuals with the personal agency to overcome
the country’s historical traumas (“chosen glory”) or whether they will concede that the consequences of those historical traumas
are insurmountable (“chosen trauma”).

In the interactive battle between these forces, Cronje considers the following four scenarios:

STEP TO THE RIGHT

RISE OF SOUTH AFRICA The national mood is “chosen glory”, as South Africa’s
moderate majority determines the national psyche and
The national psyche has become “chosen glory” and the demands liberalising reforms – they have seen through
government has embraced a deep structural reform the government and the ANC and want change. But
programme. The interests of people and policies of the government ignores calls for reform and presses
government are aligned, and a virtuous reform cycle is ahead with National Democratic Revolution policies. Civil
being set into motion. The economy recovers very quickly, liberties are curtailed, the economy performs poorly and
allowing a sharp escalation in living standards. The ANC living standards stagnate or decline. The irreconcilable
may be saved. By the 2030s, South Africa is well on its way tensions between the state and the people deliver vast
to assuming its place as a leading emerging market. political shifts that culminate in a new political transition,

via the emergence of a brand-new centre-right political
movement that will come to govern the country by the
end of the 2020s and lead it, with some success, through
the 2030s.

JUMP TO THE LEFT
FALL OF SOUTH AFRICA
South Africa’s moderate majority will lose sway as populist
The psyche of “chosen trauma” aligns with the prescriptions commentators in the media, civil society and politics
of the National Democratic Revolution. The mood of the succeed in establishing an overwhelming national sense of
people and the policies of the government are again “chosen trauma”. Too late, the current ANC administration,
aligned, but in such a manner to set in motion a negative faced with impending bankruptcy, will try to drive liberalising
socioeconomic spiral for the country. The ANC may survive reforms. These reforms are overwhelmingly rejected,
and even benefit from this scenario. triggering another set of significant political changes that
culminate in the rise of a new leftist government that will
lead the country into the 2030s.

TABLE 1: CRONJE’S FLAGS.
SOURCE: FRANS CRONJE (2020) THE RISE OR FALL OF SOUTH AFRICA. TAFELBERG.
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