Page 24 - IRMSA Risk Report 2021

These principles and the relationships between them are depicted graphically below:

FLAGS TO WATCH
IF THE FLAGS WE WATCH ARE REFLECTED IN
SUSTAINABLE
OUR STRATEGIC DRIVERS AND OUR RISK
DO WE EXTERNAL SCENARIOS APPETITE FRAMEWORK, AND IF THEY ARE ORGANISATIONS
KNOW NO AND A
WHICH SCENARIO ALIGNED TO THE POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCE IN SUSTAINABLE
OUR RISK REGISTER, WE MAY BE ALE TO
SCENARIOS ANALYSIS SYSTEMS THINKING PROMOTE A PREFERRED SCENARIO OR COUNTRY IN THE
WE MAY YES INDICATORS TO MONITOR PREVENT AN UNDESIREABLE SCENARIO FROM LONG TERM
FACE FUTURES THINKING MATERIALISING
BUSINESS MODEL
DO WE KNOW NO STRATEGY
WHICH DEFINITION OFFERING
SCENARIOS OUTCOMES TO MANAGE
SUITS US BEST YES TARGET MARKET UNSUSTAINABLE
AS AN
STRATEGIC GOALS ORGANISATION
IN THE LONG
IN OUR RISK BUDGET TARGETS TERM
CHOSEN NO APPETITE
STRATEGY, DO HORIZONS TO SCAN
WE KNOW KEY RISK INDICATORS
WHAT TO YES
LOOK FOR? EMERGING RISK NO YES
IF THINGS GO NO
WRONG, CAN RISK EXTERNAL TRENDS
WE ADAPT MANAGEMENT
AND
RESPOND? YES BUSINESS CONTINUITY ARE WE ALIGNED
TO OTHER
ORGANISATIONS
IN THE
COUNTRY?
NO DO WE KNOW CAN WE NO
WHICH FLAGS PROMOTE A
TO WATCH? SPECIFIC SUCCEED AS AN
YES SCENARIO? YES ORGANISATION IN
THE SHORT TERM
FIGURE 1: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SCENARIOS, STRATEGY, RISK APPETITE AND RISK MANAGEMENT
Scenarios do not predict the future, but they allow us to
plan so as to influence the future. If we do not act on the
insights from scenarios, we are receivers of our lot, not the
creators of our future.

In recognition of the robust scenario work done by various bodies and eminent skilled individuals in our country, this report again
builds on inputs from leading scenario builders to inform the scenarios IRMSA believes to be important for the purpose of creating
our own future for South Africa, as listed below:

• Indlulamithi’s SOUTH AFRICA SCENARIOS 2030 (2020 BAROMETER)
• Frans Cronje’s THE RISE OR FALL OF SOUTH AFRICA (2020)
• Clem Sunter’s WALKING THE TIGHTROPE (2020)

In the next section, we present the updated scenarios and as before, we position the IRMSA scenarios aiming to own our future,
which underpin the risk analysis in Section 4 of this report. It is recommended that the section below is read in conjunction with the
scenarios positioned in the IRMSA South Africa Risks Report 2020. As Frans Cronje states,

“South Africa could pull out of its present dive and start growing strongly
again at the end of this decade, but the intervening years are likely to be
tough, and the risks daunting. It is late in the day and now more apparent
than ever that those who told you there was nothing to fear have been
wrong all along.”

We fully acknowledge the rights and intellectual property relating to the scenarios quoted, referred to, adapted from and/or discussed in this report. Any oversight will be corrected
upon receiving communication pointing out such oversight from the rightful owner.

24